ELECTIONS FINALLY CALLED IN ARIZONA – EVEN TRUMP CAN’T BELIEVE THE RESULTS
Trump-Backed Republicans Sweep Arizona Primaries—But November Will Test How Far the Endorsement Power Travels
Arizona's July 21 Republican primaries delivered one result that is difficult to miss: President Donald Trump remains the dominant endorsement force inside the state's GOP.
Candidates aligned with Trump won the Republican nomination for governor, captured the party's nod in a major open House race, and advanced across a slate of congressional contests.
What the primary did not establish is the broader claim that those victories automatically put Republicans in a stronger position to win Arizona's most competitive races in November.
That distinction matters because primary strength and general-election strength are not the same thing.
The clearest example is the governor's race.
U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs overwhelmingly won the Republican nomination, taking about 74 percent of the vote. Fellow Rep. David Schweikert finished a distant second at roughly 14 percent, with the rest divided between Scott Neely and Ken Miceli.
Biggs will face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who was unopposed for renomination.
This is not a rematch between Biggs and Hobbs. They have never faced each other in a general election. The comparison is with 2022, when Hobbs narrowly defeated Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake to win the governor's office.
Biggs enters the general election with a political identity that is already well established. A former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, he has emphasized border enforcement, lower taxes, reduced regulation and a more conservative approach to state government.
Trump's support was unquestionably important to that positioning, but the endorsement history is more complicated than a simple one-candidate coronation.
Trump initially backed Karrin Taylor Robson for governor. After Biggs entered the race, Trump endorsed both of them, writing, “Two fantastic candidates, two terrific people, two wonderful champions, and it is therefore my Great Honor TO GIVE MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT TO BOTH.”
Robson later dropped out of the race, leaving Biggs as the Trump-endorsed candidate still competing against Schweikert and the rest of the field.
By April, Trump's preference had become more explicit in public appearances. At a Phoenix rally, he told the crowd, “I hate to lose him from Congress… but he'll be a great governor.”
The result suggests Republican primary voters agreed.
But it is worth being precise about what that proves.
Biggs' 74-percent showing demonstrates overwhelming support inside the Republican primary electorate. It does not by itself show how independents, moderate Republicans or Democratic-leaning swing voters will react in November.
The same caution applies to Trump's broader Arizona endorsement record.
Trump celebrated the primary as a “complete sweep,” and the candidates he backed who remained on the ballot did have an exceptionally strong night. But several endorsements were dual endorsements, and some endorsed incumbents faced no meaningful primary opposition. That makes the results strong evidence of Trump's influence over Republican nominations, but a less clean test of whether his endorsement alone caused every victory.
The open 1st Congressional District shows both the power and the limits of that argument.
Former Arizona Cardinals kicker and sports broadcaster Jay Feely won the Republican nomination with 49.8 percent of the vote. Former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik finished with 35.7 percent, and businessman John Trobough received 14.5 percent.
Feely will face Democrat Amish Shah, an emergency physician and former state legislator who also won the Democratic nomination after losing narrowly to Schweikert in the same district in 2024.
That makes AZ-01 one of the races where the primary result matters far beyond Arizona. The district includes Scottsdale, north Phoenix and other parts of northeastern Maricopa County, and national analysts continue to treat it as highly competitive in the fight for control of the House.
Trump's endorsement helped Feely establish himself as the leading Republican, but here too there is an important detail.
Trump originally endorsed both Feely and then-Arizona GOP Chair Gina Swoboda, calling them “Two Highly Respected America First Patriots” and writing, “JAY OR GINA WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” Swoboda later left the congressional race to run for secretary of state.
So by the time voters chose among the final Republican field, Feely was the remaining Trump-endorsed candidate.
That is a meaningful advantage. It is not the same thing as proving that the endorsement guarantees a November win.
Feely's general-election challenge is different from his primary challenge. He now has to persuade voters who did not participate in the Republican primary and who may care less about loyalty to Trump than about abortion, costs, health care, public safety, immigration and the performance of Congress.
The 5th Congressional District presents a different kind of test.
Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb won the Republican primary with 58.7 percent of the vote, defeating businessman Daniel Keenan, who finished with 41.3 percent.
Trump had strongly endorsed Lamb, calling him a “MAGA Warrior” and praising his positions on law enforcement, the border, taxes, regulation and energy.
Lamb's victory also came after a turbulent primary in which he faced allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse of power. Lamb denied the allegations, and the county attorney said there was not a basis for criminal charges. Voters nonetheless gave him a clear majority.
That result may say as much about the district as it does about the endorsement.
AZ-05 is heavily Republican, and Biggs' decision to leave the seat for the governor's race made the GOP primary especially consequential. In a district like that, winning the Republican nomination can be a much stronger predictor of the general-election outcome than it is in AZ-01 or AZ-06.
Arizona's 6th Congressional District is almost the opposite.
Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani advanced without a primary opponent. Democrat JoAnna Mendoza was also unopposed for her party's nomination.
Ciscomani has Trump's support, but an uncontested primary cannot tell voters much about the independent effect of that endorsement. The real test comes in November, when Ciscomani and Mendoza compete in a district that has repeatedly produced close general elections and is again rated among the most competitive House races in the country.
Trump also backed Arizona Republicans including Reps. Eli Crane, Paul Gosar and Abe Hamadeh, all of whom advanced to the general election.
Those results add to the picture of a Republican delegation closely aligned with the president. They should not all be treated as equivalent evidence, however. A contested open-seat victory, an overwhelming gubernatorial primary and an uncontested incumbent nomination measure different things.
On the Democratic side, the primary produced its own useful signals.
Gov. Hobbs had no primary opponent. In the 4th Congressional District, Rep. Greg Stanton defeated progressive challenger Kai Newkirk by 68.1 percent to 31.9 percent, preventing the kind of incumbent upset that progressive candidates have produced elsewhere.
In AZ-01, meanwhile, Shah defeated Marlene Galán-Woods, who had support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and several prominent Arizona Democrats. That result complicates any simple story that only Republicans rejected their party establishment in Arizona.
The better reading of the primary is narrower.
Trump-aligned candidates clearly dominated the Republican contests that mattered most. Biggs crushed his gubernatorial opposition. Feely captured a competitive open-seat nomination. Lamb survived a difficult primary and won comfortably. Trump-backed incumbents moved on to November.
That is real evidence of Trump's continued power over the Arizona Republican electorate.
It is not yet evidence of a Republican general-election wave.
The governor's race illustrates the difference. Arizona is a battleground state with a Republican voter-registration advantage, and Trump carried it in 2024. But Republicans have also lost a series of major statewide races in recent cycles, including the governor's race in 2022.
Current race ratings reflect that uncertainty. The Biggs-Hobbs contest remains competitive, but the Cook Political Report moved it from Toss Up to Lean Democratic in July. AZ-01 is widely treated as a toss-up, and AZ-06 is another major battleground.
Those ratings are forecasts, not results. They can change quickly. But they are a reminder that winning the Republican primary and winning Arizona are two different political tasks.
Biggs now has to build a coalition larger than the one that gave him 74 percent in the GOP primary. Feely has to hold a district where Republicans have repeatedly faced close challenges. Ciscomani must again defend one of the country's most competitive seats.
Supporters of the Trump-backed slate can reasonably point to the July results as evidence of Republican enthusiasm and ideological alignment. The president's preferred candidates did not merely survive; several of them won decisively.
Critics can reasonably answer that the general electorate is broader, less ideological and less predictable than a Republican primary electorate.
Both points can be true at the same time.
The July 21 vote settled one question: in Arizona Republican primaries, Trump's endorsement and the America First political brand remain extraordinarily powerful.
What it did not settle is whether that power expands the Republican coalition or simply defines it.
That is what the November 3 election will decide.
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For Biggs, Feely, Lamb, Ciscomani and the rest of the Arizona GOP slate, the next test is no longer whether Republican primary voters want candidates aligned with Trump. They plainly do.
The test now is whether enough of the rest of Arizona does too.
